Hillary's Fuzzy Math

For all intents and purposes, it appears as though Hillary Rodham-Clinton is about to win her party's Kentucky primary by a convincing margin. But it's almost certain that she won't be the nominee. Adam Nagurney of the New York Times speculates why:

WASHINGTON — When it comes time to recount the story of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s descent from inevitable nominee to defeat at the hands of Senator Barack Obama — assuming that is how this ends up — there is no shortage of mistakes by the Clinton campaign to put on the what-went-wrong list.

But without in any way discounting the travails of the Clinton organization, there have also been a series of external events in this Democratic nominating fight — events largely beyond the control of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign — that, had they gone differently, might just have resulted in a different outcome. Politics is often as much about luck as it is about skill; the Clinton campaign arguably ran short on both this year.

Here, in no particular order, are some of the factors and developments that undercut her candidacy, some self-inflicted, others inflicted upon her.

The Timing of the Edwards Endorsement

Senator John Edwards, after weeks of holding back, decided to endorse Mr. Obama on the Wednesday after Mrs. Clinton enjoyed a rare bit of good news, a 41-point defeat of Mr. Obama in West Virginia. Mr. Edwards’ decision to move that day — and in prime time, no less — took the wind out of the Clinton campaign’s sails, depriving it of what seemed to be at least a chance to get back in the hunt.

Mrs. Clinton, on something of a victory lap, had taped an interview with Charlie Gibson to be aired on The World News Tonight on ABC that evening. Instead, for the East Coast feed of the program — the most-watched feed, the one broadcast in Washington, D.C. — ABC went live to Mr. Edwards endorsing Mr. Obama in Michigan. And the Clinton interview? Relegated to the late feeds and the ABC Web site.

Was there a kick-the-wounded-puppy feeling to all this? Well, yes. But this is politics, after all. And it certainly appeared to be successful: The time just after the West Virginia victory might have been the last window Mrs. Clinton had to get superdelegates to hear her case that Mr. Obama is a flawed general-election candidate.

Michigan and Florida

The importance of these two states being relegated to the sidelines — because they defied the Democratic Party and held their primaries earlier than party rules allowed — can not be overstated.

For Mrs. Clinton, the best of all worlds would have been for the Democratic National Committee to do what the Republican National Committee did to Florida and Michigan for breaking the rules: cut the delegations in half, but still permit the primaries to go on. That outcome — assuming she won in Michigan and Florida, which seems a pretty good bet — might have given Mrs. Clinton a burst of momentum going into the “Super Tuesday” primaries of Feb. 5, and possibly allowed her to emerge that day with a significant lead in delegates, not to mention the popular vote; with a line-up of big state victories; and perhaps with enough momentum to withstand the 11-state winning streak that Mr. Obama reeled off after Feb. 5.

The Clinton campaign was acutely aware of the problem from the start. They were out-maneuvered, particularly when the four states that started the process — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — got the other candidates to sign an agreement pledging not to campaign in Michigan and Florida, thereby throwing into question the legitimacy of any voting there.

The Drudge Report

In October, The New York Times published an article examining the relationship between Mrs. Clinton and the Drudge Report. The article related how the Drudge Report, which historically had tormented the Clintons, had begun routinely posting items boosting Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, at the prompting of an intermediary between Mrs. Clinton’s campaign and the Web site.

For the Clinton campaign, things changed almost overnight after that: The Drudge Report returned to being a vehicle driving negative stories about Mrs. Clinton, bad news about the Clinton campaign got extensive attention, and Mrs. Clinton’s war room spent many hours trying to tamp down rumors and suspect information being trumpeted on the site.

The Tipping Scandal

What if an NPR reporter had checked with the Clinton campaign before posting an article reporting the complaints by an Iowa waiter that Mrs. Clinton had stiffed her for a tip? After it appeared, the Clinton campaign produced a sheaf of material rebutting the claim. Yet even though the article was not quite right — NPR posted a clarification — the damage was done. The story spread across the state and the country, feeding the image of Mrs. Clinton as entitled and imperious, at a time when she was already struggling to find her legs in Iowa, a state she went on to lose.

Immigrants Behind the Wheel

Eliot Spitzer, the former New York governor, certainly wasn’t thinking about presidential politics when he proposed in New York that illegal immigrants be granted driver’s licenses. But when Mrs. Clinton was asked about his proposal at a debate last year, she gave an equivocal answer — make that answers, since she seemed in the course of the debate to say both that she opposed it and that she supported it — in what may well have been the single most politically damaging moment of her campaign. It encapsulated the image of Mrs. Clinton as cautious, calculating and disingenuous. That night is arguably when the descent began.

The Return of Joe Trippi

When Joe Trippi, a veteran of many Democratic campaigns, signed on with Mr. Edwards late last year, the pitch of the Edwards campaign instantly turned more populist and tougher, and took aim at Mrs. Clinton. That may have not done much for Mr. Edwards — he quit the race on Jan. 30 — but it sure put Mrs. Clinton on the defensive, and took the burden of attack off Mr. Obama.

Bill Clinton

Granted, former President Clinton may have helped his wife in Pennsylvania and perhaps in Indiana. But it seems hard to argue that Mr. Clinton was anything but a net negative for Mrs. Clinton overall. Why didn’t Mrs. Clinton and her team simply put him on a tighter leash? Pose that question to any member of the constantly frustrated Clinton command who might have preferred that Mr. Clinton take a lower-profile and less combative stance.

Planted Questions and False Rumors

It is hard to exaggerate how much damage Mrs. Clinton suffered from two things that her supporters got busted for doing early on: Planting questions in audiences at town halls in Iowa, and forwarding e-mail messages suggesting that Mr. Obama is a Muslim. (He is not.)

The Clinton campaign vigorously denied that these efforts were approved or orchestrated. Still, the stories about them, eagerly circulated by her opponents, underlined the notion that Mrs. Clinton was scripted and calculating, while increasing the antagonism between Mr. Obama’s supporters and the former first lady.

For some observers, Rodham-Clinton's refusal to do the honorable thing throw in the towel and continue pursuing the nomination looks like a plucky last stand.

Others assert that by continuing the electoral struggle, she'll do little other than tear the Democratic Party apart and make it all but impossible for them to win the presidency in November.

Thus paving the way for her to grab the nomination in 2012, where she would face a nearly 80-year old John McCain or an untested first-time Republican nominee. (Huckabee?)

What puzzles me is how many conservatives (including radio commentator comedian Rush Limbaugh) seem to cheering for a Clinton nomination.

They should be careful what they ask for.

I remember back in 1992 when many Republicans were itching to square-off against Bill Clinton.

And they got what they asked for.

Carnival Entries Are Due!

Entries for the 172nd edition of The Carnival Of Education (Hosted this week over at Teacher in a Strange Land.) are due. Please email them to: nflanagan [at] comcast [dot] net . (Or, easier yet, use this handy submission form.) Submissions should be received no later than 9:00 PM (Eastern) 6:00 PM (Pacific) Today. Contributions should include your site's name, the title of the post, and the post's URL if possible.

Visit last week's midway, hosted by Instructify, right here.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the midway should open Wednesday.

The Watcher's Council Has Spoken!

Each and every week, Watcher of Weasels sponsors a contest among posts from the Conservative side of the 'Sphere. The winning entries are determined by a jury of 12 writers (and The Watcher) known as "The Watchers Council."

The Council has met and cast their ballots for last week's submitted posts.

Council Member Entries: Soccer Dad received the most Council votes with "Evolution" = "Growth".

Non-Council Entries: Kaboom: A Soldier's War Journal took first-place honors with Numb.
----------------------------See our latest EduPosts.

Los Angeles' Combat High School

Instead of concentrating on their reading, writing, and arithmetic, it seems as though a large number of "students" in one of our publicly-funded high schools have other priorities:

"A fight between rival groups of black and Latino students at Locke High School quickly escalated into a campus-wide melee Friday, with as many as 600 students brawling until police restored calm with billy clubs.

The troubled campus in South Los Angeles was locked down after the fight broke out at 12:55 p.m., as students returned from lunch to their fifth-period classes. Overwhelmed school officials called Los Angeles police for help, but students and faculty said it took about half an hour before dozens of officers, many in riot gear, restored order.

"The kids were crazy, running from place to place, jumping on other kids," said Reggie Smith, the school's band director, who said he ran to pull his students from the melee. "Some of my kids were crying because they were walking to class with friends and they got jumped."

Los Angeles Unified School District police said that there are only two officers assigned to Locke but that the school police force brought in about 60 officers after receiving word of the brawl. The Los Angeles Police Department also dispatched more than a dozen patrol cars and about 50 officers.

Susan Cox, an LAUSD spokeswoman, said police arrested four people -- three students for fighting and one non-student for illegal possession of a knife. Four students were treated in the school nurse's office for minor injuries.

The campus at 111th and San Pedro streets has long been one of the city's most troubled. This school year has been particularly difficult, with near-daily fights -- albeit on a much smaller scale -- during much of the fall and winter. Locke is about to be reorganized as a cluster of charter schools run by Green Dot Public Schools, which will take over in July, and some faculty and staff have accused the district of letting the campus drift in its final year as a traditional public school.

"Morale has really dropped because they don't feel like they have everybody behind them," cheerleading coach Marlo Jenkins said recently. "There are just fights upon fights upon fights now."

Faculty members and Green Dot complained that L.A. Unified nearly halved its funding for non-police security aides at the start of the year. The school has been especially plagued by tagging crews -- the school employs two full-time workers just to paint over graffiti, said Green Dot's Kelly Hurley, who is managing the transition.

Faculty members also complained repeatedly about in-school ditching and a massive tardiness problem. Finally, the district restored some of the trimmed security, faculty said, and also dispatched an additional administrator to help restore order. Until then, the district had relied on Principal Travis Kiel, who'd been brought back from retirement. In recent weeks, students and teachers have reported improved conditions -- less ditching, a little less graffiti.

But then came Friday's melee, which students and teachers said was by far the worst of the year, perhaps the worst in years.

Joseph Sherlock, a senior, 17, who has been at Locke for four years, called it "my first actual encounter with a riot." He added: "I've seen fights, and I've seen fights between black and brown, but I've never seen anything like this."

Sherlock, who said he saw police use pepper spray during the melee, said tensions between African American and Latino students have not been a serious problem at the school. With an enrollment of 2,600, Locke is 65% Latino and 35% African American.

"It's not the way it's portrayed in the media; that's not what it's like at all," said Sherlock, who is black. Another black student, Ronald White, said African American and Latino students commonly divide along ethnic lines but aren't necessarily hostile. "Everybody usually just sticks to themselves," he said.

White, a 17-year-old senior, said he had just stepped from a main building into the school's grassy quad when he was met with a scene of chaos.

Hundreds of students were outside, and from what he could see, "Most people was fighting." Eventually, police began to swarm onto the campus, and White said the students began fighting the officers, who responded with their batons.

"I was in the corner, just watching," he said. "I saw a girl get hit by the police and she went down."

Senior Victor Wong, 18, said the brawl grew out of a fight two days earlier between a Latino student and an African American student. Wong said Latino students who are friends of his asked him to participate in a fight planned for Friday that was to pit 10 Latino students against 10 African American students.

"It was a crew-on-crew thing," he said, referring to graffiti gangs. "They asked for my help, but I'm graduating," he said. "I'm done with all that."

Wong said the two groups of instigators met as planned at the school's handball courts, and "all of them started going at it." Within seconds, he said, the fight escalated beyond the original two groups, and people began running throughout the campus fighting.

"They would finish one place and run to another corner and fight," he said.

"Security didn't know where to go," Wong added. "They'd concentrate in one spot and something would happen somewhere else. This is the worst I've seen."

Minor injuries at the scene were treated by the school nurse and L.A. Fire Department personnel. No one required hospitalization, the school district said. There were, however, some descriptions of students being badly beaten.

Wong said he saw one student beaten unconscious on a handball court. Sherlock said he saw one Latino student walking along Saint Street, the road that bisects the campus, when he was surrounded by a large group of black students who began hitting and kicking him. "He was bleeding real bad," Sherlock said. "When they stood him up, he kind of collapsed back down."

Sherlock, who is a member of the Black Student Union and the school's new House of Representatives, which was formed to help guide the transition from traditional school to charter, added that he had tried to stop the fighting, but to little effect. After securing order, authorities rounded up the students who hadn't returned to class and segregated them by race, holding Latinos in the boys gym and African American students in Hobbs Hall, the school's multipurpose room.

Beginning at 2 p.m., school officials began releasing students in small groups to go home. The school remained on lockdown until the last group had left about 3:15 p.m.

LAUSD's Cox said that there would be an enhanced police presence at Locke during school hours next week and that the district would send human relations staff to the school to talk to students.

In recent years, melees have broken out periodically at many campuses with a black and Latino presence, including in Los Angeles, Lynwood and Compton. There have been fights between Latinos and Armenians in other areas that led to campus lockdowns.

In nearly all cases, no serious injuries have resulted, but the incidents have frightened students and parents, marred the reputation of schools and hindered the learning of students who frequently already face substantial academic challenges.

"How do you build anything here when something happens and adds to the negativity?" asked band leader Smith.

As one who has taught for many years in a California public school system, I continue be puzzled at how our school administrators continue tolerating this type of criminal behavior from certain students who view school as little more than a place to socialize and victimize those youngsters who do attend school in order to make something of themselves.

But until the parents of the good students unite and rise-up in defense of their kids, further incidents of this nature can and will continue to plague our public schools.

Meanwhile, the authorities will continue to take half-hearted measures that do little to actually solve the problem.

Carnival Entries Are Due!

Entries for the 171st edition of The Carnival Of Education (Hosted this week over at Instructify.) are due. Please email them to: instructify [at] learnnc [dot] org . (Or, easier yet, use this handy submission form.) Submissions should be received no later than 4:00 PM (Eastern) 1:00 PM (Pacific) Today. Contributions should include your site's name, the title of the post, and the post's URL if possible.

Visit last week's midway, hosted by Bellringers, right here.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the midway should open Wednesday.

The Watcher's Council Has Spoken!

Each and every week, Watcher of Weasels sponsors a contest among posts from the Conservative side of the 'Sphere. The winning entries are determined by a jury of 12 writers (and The Watcher) known as "The Watchers Council."

The Council has met and cast their ballots for last week's submitted posts.

Council Member Entries: Joshuapundit received the most Council votes with Who Cares About Israel, Anyway?

Non-Council Entries: The Huffington Post easily earned first-place honors with Losing Our Spines to Save Our Necks. ----------------------------See our latest EduPosts.

Carnival-Carnival

The 170th edition of The Carnival of Education (hosted this week by Bellringers.) is open for your educational pleasure!

And don't forget to round out your educational experience by taking a look at the Mother's Day Edition of The Carnival of Homeschooling.

Carnival Entries Are Due!

Entries for the 170th edition of The Carnival Of Education (Hosted this week over at Bellringers.) are due. Please email them to: mybellringers [at] gmail [dot] com . (Or, easier yet, use this handy submission form.) Submissions should be received no later than 7:00 PM (Eastern) 4:00 PM (Pacific) Today. Contributions should include your site's name, the title of the post, and the post's URL if possible.

Visit last week's midway, hosted by What It's Like on the Inside, right here.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the midway should open Wednesday.

The Watcher's Council Has Spoken!

Each and every week, Watcher of Weasels sponsors a contest among posts from the Conservative side of the 'Sphere. The winning entries are determined by a jury of 12 writers (and The Watcher) known as "The Watchers Council."

The Council has met and cast their ballots for last week's submitted posts.

Council Member Entries: Right Wing Nut House received the most Council votes with The Total Witlessness of Obama Apologists.
Non-Council Entries: City Journal won with An Anatomy of Surrender.
----------------------------See our latest EduPosts.

Carnivalicious!

The 169th edition of The Carnival of Education (hosted this week by What It's Like on the Inside.) has opened the midway!

And don't forget to round out your educational experience by seeing what the homies are up to over at The Carnival of Homeschooling.

Get Your Carnival On!

Entries for the 169th edition of The Carnival Of Education (Hosted this week by The Science Goddess over at What It's Like on the Inside.) are due. Please email them to: the_science_goddess [at] yahoo [dot] com . (Or, easier yet, use this handy submission form.) Submissions should be received no later than 9:00 PM (Eastern) 6:00 PM (Pacific) Today. Contributions should include your site's name, the title of the post, and the post's URL if possible.

Visit last week's midway, hosted by us here at The 'Wonks, right here.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the midway should open Wednesday.

The Carnival Of Education: Week 168

Welcome to the midway of the 168th edition of The Carnival of Education!

Here's the very latest roundup of entries from around the EduSphere. Unless clearly labeled otherwise, all entries this week were submitted by the writers themselves.

Folks interested in hosting a future edition of the C.O.E. should please let us know via this email address: owlshome [at] earthlink [dot] net.

Thanks to everyone who helped spread the word about last week's midway, which was hosted over at The CEA Blog. Visit the C.O.E.'s early archives here, later archives there, and our latest entries here.

Next Week's Carnival will be hosted by the Science Goddess over at What It's Like on the Inside. Contributors are invited to send submissions to: the_science_goddess [at] yahoo [dot] com , or, easier yet, use this handy submission form. Entries should be received no later than 9:00 PM (Eastern) 6:00 PM (Pacific) Tuesday, April 30, 2008. Please include the title of your post, and its URL, if possible. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the midway should open next Wednesday.

Let the free exchange of thoughts and ideas begin!

EduPolicy And EduPolicy Makers:

Is differentiating instruction the New Tracking? Or should we simply Differentiate This?

Has education spending really skyrocketed? Or is it all some kind of inflation-driven shell game? You be the decider.

Here's an example of what happens when the No Child Left Behind Act meets Political Correctness.

Eduwonkette's guest-blogger "Skoolboy" is having a debate with Kevin Carey of The Quick and the Ed on the status-quo of education policy. (Be sure to read the comments.)

Candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham-Clinton are both proposing programs designed to prevent teens from joining street gangs. Darren of Right on the Left Coast wonders if this will be money well spent.

Advertising... on School Buses? Please say that it isn't so! (This post has been brought to you by The Essential Blog.)

When it comes to recruiting teachers, everyone seems to be for high standards. But what about some of the unintended consequences?

A Nation At Risk has just turned 25 years of age and Matt Johnston is taking stock.

A group of folks in affluent Scarsdale, New York have asked some African-American ministers to open a charter school in Scarsdale that is modeled on the Harlem Success School.

Dave acquaints us with Oakland's Monarch Academy, which is a charter school that has high expectations for all students.

Inside This Teaching Life:

Coach Brown examines classroom teaching versus several Other Professions and wonders why, unlike some workers, public school educators aren't given the tools needed to do the job.

Here's a rarity: a list of 10 good reasons why one should continue teaching...

Is there ever a time when a teacher should hide his or her own beliefs while in the classroom?

When traveling with 14 teenagers on an overnight field trip, we agree with Bellringers that a rubber chicken can be very useful indeed.

Helicopter Parents are always a challenge. But as Mamacita of Scheiss Weekly so engagingly points out, helicopter parents who have college-age kids must surely be the most obnoxious challenging.

Ms. Cornelius has a good idea: give kids a physical before they're put on Ritalin.

Here's an idea: using the interruptions caused by classroom visitors in order to focus students' attention.

Mrs. Bluebird points out that even though the kids have finished their annual tests, the Fat Lady hasn't even begun to sing yet.

Did you hear the one about the parent who wanted to tape record a teacher-parent conference? It ended-up being two meetings for the pain of one.

Teaching And Learning:

HomeBusBlog is imploring the Education Community to stop a program known as "Inventive Spelling" before it gets started.

Elementary Historyteacher makes the case for portfolio assessment over that of The Test.

We agree with this idea: learning is a whole lot like hiking up and down the Grand Canyon.

What's the purpose of many classroom activities? David posits that, in the tradition of The Karate Kid, it's "wax-on, wax-off."

Michael L Umphrey of The Good Place reminds educators that, along with academic performance, beauty also has a place in the classroom.

Wouldn't it be great if your local public school could convince James Lipton to work with its teachers? Just a thought from next week's Carnival host, What It's Like on the Inside.

Ten Blog seeks to clarify the difference between assessment and understanding.

Homeschooling:

Have you or someone you know ever had a Monongahela moment?

Several weeks ago, a panel of three activist judges mandated that parents who homeschool their children in California must have a teaching credential. Folks are now being invited to sign a petition in order to express their concerns.

Teaching Ideas:

Here are some pointers for figuring out figurate numbers.

Using a percussion instrument in order to learn about topics from fish to surfing? We like the idea.

How about some ideas for teaching Homer's Odyssey? (Spoiler alert: The cyclops doesn't make out so well.)

Here's a brief primer in the use of the apostrophe. (By taking a look at this site as well, maybe you too can avoid an apostrophe catastrophe as well as get a few chuckles thrown into the bargain.)

Can students be taught how to memorize things?

Technology:

Technology can have an unexpectedly frustrating dark side for classroom teachers. This unpleasant fact can easily be seen by this so-called new and improved attendance protocol.

Here's a few good reasons for finding your own online voice. Meanwhile, Joel wants everybody to know that the Blog Revolution is coming.

Does author Daniel Pink hate EduBlogger Sylvia?

Larry Ferlazzo has a roundup of "fun" websites that may not be wholly education-related but from which students can still learn.

Humor:

NYC Educator gifts us with the 50 worst songs ever written!

A series of comic-strip type drawings shows us what happens when teenagers don't take responsibility for their own learning. (Be sure to "click" on the pictures in order to see a larger version.

Higher Education:

How about 15 common-sense tips to avoid overspending for first-time college students?

Whatever you do, avoid this after finishing college.

Inside The Blogs:

The Bag Lady asks all of us to "let them be kids a little while longer." Lead From The Start makes the case for good old-fashioned romp in the woods for our youngest learners. Sounds good to us.

The "This I Believe" meme is making the rounds over at The Tempered Radical.

When it comes to traditional American Values, Clyde W. Kirkman reminds us not to forget.

Labels matter. Names matter. Especially with autism.

Can large donations by American corporate titans really help to curb the dropout rate?

And finally: This, like nearly all of our journeys around the EduSphere, has been both enjoyable and informative. We continue to thank all the contributors whose submissions make the midway's continuing success possible, the folks who give of their time to help spread the word, and the readers who continue to make it A Free Exchange of Thoughts and Ideas.